CBN Pinning Hopes On Jagan Welfare Schemes

Will Jagan Welfare Schemes Deliver. Since Telugu politics became bipolar with the emergence of the Telugu Desam Party in the early 1980s, one core issue has consistently dominated the narrative and influenced election outcomes. From 'Telugu pride' in 1982 to 'Delhi dominance' in 1994, and from the tie-up with the BJP after the Kargil victory in 1999 to the focus on welfare schemes in 2009, each election has revolved around a central theme. In 2019, the anger stemming from a sense of being let down on the state’s development took center stage.

In the upcoming May 13 elections, the acceptance or rejection of Chief Minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy's symbolic gesture of pressing the button to showcase the transfer of social welfare benefits worth lakhs of crores of rupees directly to the people could significantly impact the outcome. This gesture will also determine whether his arch-rival, 74-year-old Telugu Desam supremo N. Chandrababu Naidu, will return to power.

According to a senior YSRC leader from East Godavari district, the party's victory depends on whether most people, despite criticism that development was overshadowed by an overdose of welfare, want the financial assistance to their families to continue for another five years. The 2024 polls are also witnessing a shift where class is taking precedence over caste. Surveys indicate that people, irrespective of caste, are aligning politically based on their support or opposition to welfare schemes.

Jagan Mohan Reddy has described it as a "class war between haves and have-nots," emphasizing his government's distribution of 2.7 lakh crore through direct benefit transfer (DBT) and 1.10 lakh crore through other welfare schemes. He warns that Naidu would discontinue the schemes if he returns to power.

The YSRC is banking heavily on sections of the population with no source of income other than the state's financial assistance, including those receiving 10,000 every month through various schemes. The party is also confident of the loyalty of senior citizens receiving 3,000 pension every month, and women beneficiaries of schemes like SHG loan waiver, house sites, and Cheyutha pension, as they form more than 45 per cent of the electorate.

The recent disruption of DBT cash delivery at the doorstep of beneficiaries by village and ward volunteers, following the Election Commission of India's intervention, has worked in favor of the ruling party. Jagan Mohan Reddy accused Naidu of causing the disruption through his "aide" and former State Election Commissioner N. Ramesh Kumar's petition to the ECI.

The principal opposition's stance on DBT and welfare initiatives has been confusing and lacking credibility. Despite criticizing Jagan Mohan Reddy for pushing the state into a debt trap and not initiating any development schemes despite raising funds, the TD has promised more than what the YSRC government has been delivering. For example, while the Jagan Mohan Reddy government provides `15,000 assistance under Amma Devena to one child in a family to encourage school attendance, Naidu has promised to extend the assistance to all school-going children in each family.

Despite criticizing the volunteer system as a "private army" of the YSRC, Naidu has now spoken in favor of the system and promised to double their honorarium from `5,000. However, TD general secretary Nara Lokesh's defense of doubling schemes on the pretext of generating wealth has not resonated with voters.

In a paradoxical situation, the TD is relying heavily on the visible anger among forward castes, the educated, and employees of both public and private sectors against the Jagan Mohan Reddy government. This anger stems from what they perceive as the indiscriminate and reckless distribution of favors to buy votes.